Arrowhead stadium. Against a team coming home after a stinging loss, a humiliation on national TV against a hated rival. Many have picked this game as the most difficult on the Eagles' schedule. I can't argue.

I was convinced before delving too deep into the trends and matchups that this game would very likely result in a loss for the Eagles. Kansas City is one of those teams that could beat the 1985 Bears at home, yet lose awkwardly on the road to some of the dregs of the NFL.

After looking deeper, I come away believing the intangibles - the angry team off a loss that dominates at home vs. the injured and reeling out of conference foe - beg for a lean toward K.C., while a focus on the matchups favors Philly.

As indicated by movement on the "line" in Vegas, the public is favoring the Eagles in this game, as 2 point dogs. The public has been correct 63% of the time moving the money line in the Eagles' direction the last 3 seasons (21-12). I found this surprising, as the conventional wisdom around the NFL, and assumption by much of the media, is that K.C. will rebound and that the Eagles will lose given the injury factors. So who is moving the line?

Each team has trends that break in their favor in this spot. In the last 3 years, when playing a team with a winning record, the Eagles are 9-4 straight up. The Chiefs are 8-7. Both teams play well in October, as each has gone 7-1 the last 8. Under Vermeil, the Chiefs are 2-2 after playing on Monday Night Football. But the key trend is the "bounce back"- Vermeil's Chiefs are 4-1 coming off a loss to a division rival. The Chiefs will be mentally and emotionally ready to play, and will try to get their fans, perhaps the loudest in any outdoor venue, to enhance the homefield edge. The Eagles will not be intimidated by the noise or the adversity of the road. Reid's team does well in the role of road dog of 3 or less, having gone 4-1 recently in that situation.

Historically, the biggest advantage K.C. had versus any opponent was leaning on that massive offensive line to dominate the trenches and bang out gaudy running stats. That line is now not what it has been the last 5 or more years, when it was widely regarded as the NFL's best. LT Willie Roaf does not look like he will play with a bad hamstring this week, although the window for him to play is still open. It would help, as OT Jordan Black is struggling mightily as a pass and run blocker, and has taken Roaf's LT spot for now. Chris Bober, a true C, is not a good RT, and Kevin Sampson is untested there too. The bottom line is the Chief's OT's can be had on passing downs if Roaf is out. But that interior line is still rock solid. Wiegmann, Shields and Waters can open huge holes inside in the running game, and should get push against the Eagles' DT's.

The lack of production by Tony Gonzalez is not surprising. The play of the Chief's WR's has been atrocious at times. Kennison has speed, but is not known for his toughness. He is prone to fumbling against physical defenses, and will not enjoy facing the Dawkins-Lewis safety tandem. Samie Parker has speed to burn but hands of stone. He is a #3 WR masquerading as a #2. Dante Hall is great in space as a #3 option, but cannot be overused, and is more quick than fast and is not a downfield "stretch" WR. With no real consistent threat outside, some teams this year have put their best cover CB on Gonzalez. He has only 14 catches for a 8.9 avg. and zero touchdowns. Trent Green has 1 TD pass in 3 games.

Al Saunders, the Chief's offensive coordinator, loves to use alot of motion and pre-snap shifts to get a defense confused and out of position. This offense uses reverses frequently as well. Throws down the field are often off play action. Trent Green is solid in the pocket, but doesn't have a rocket arm. He forces balls now if the Chiefs are behind. Green is also vulnerable to getting stripped on sacks, as he fumbled a whopping 11 times last year.

If you can contain the running game, the Chiefs are limited now in the passing game. But they run awfully well, notwithstanding the blowout loss in Denver. Holmes and Johnson are a load to handle, combining for 5 rushing TD's and 4.0 and 6.3 yards per carry respectively.

On defense, the Chiefs do something that the Eagles can exploit. K.C., like the Eagles, does not "flop" their CB's to match up when other teams move their WR's from side to side. Their only solid cover CB, Surtain, will always stay on the left side. Waiting to be picked on on the right side is Dex McCleon, who simply struggles now in coverage. Any time the Eagles want T.O. on McCleon, they can simply line him up on the Chief's right side. The nickle and dime backs, Sapp and Washington, are raw and vulnerable to the matchup problems the Eagles present. The Eagles already have seven different players that have a reception of 22 yards or more - astounding for this early in the season.

K.C.'s LB's are now undersized but much faster. You must run against them, as Mitchell is not an instinctive or stout run stopper as a MLB. Rookie Derrick Johnson can match up speed wise in the flat with Westbrook. Kendrell Bell, from the Steelers, has been unimpressive so far, and is now an outside 4-3 OLB when he used to be an inside 3-4 LB. Where K.C. really struggles is at safety in the passing game. Sammy Knight is a hitter but not a cover guy, and Wesley also struggles in coverage and is not a good tackler in space. The Eagles should try, by formation and personnel grouping, to get L.J. Smith or Westbrook or any WR in space on these safeties. The loss of Sims on the DL has also resulted in a lack of push up the middle. Jared Allen, the RDE, is very undisciplined., and vulnerable to bootlegs and reverses as revealed on Monday Night. Hicks is a stud pass rusher who should be chipped or doubled.

Matchups that favor Philadelphia:

1) Westbrook or L.J. Smith on the Chief safeties.

2) Running against the smallish Chief front 7 (K.C. gives up 4.5 yards a rush).

3) Using press and man to man outside on the K.C. WR's, and dropping 8 in the box to stop the run.

4) T.O. on McCleon's side, and deep as the safeties can't handle him up top even on doubles or roll coverage.

5) Reverses, misdirection plays and screens against an undisciplined, overpursuing Chief defense.

6) Westbrook on screens, or in the flat, as a blitz beater versus K.C.'s pressure packages.

Matchups that favor Kansas City:

1) Running inside with Holmes and Larry Johnson.

2) Priest Holmes as a receiver vs. Philly's LB's.

3) Chief's defense on 3rd and long with the crowd noise.

4) Special teams in the return game with Dante Hall, and large advantage in the kicking game (tilting field postition and gaining hidden yards).

Final thoughts: Reid has not been at his best in out of conference regular season games. One factor may be the importance, and additional preparation done in the off season, on division and conference foes. It remains to be seen whether McNabb can play at or near his expected level week to week with the sports hernia, and whether Reid takes advantage of the perfect opportunity and opponent to run the ball against. The Chiefs are simply excellent at home, and although there are many matchups that favor the Eagles on paper, I expect the Chiefs will control the ball and clock well enough to ride the noise of the home town crowd to a win. It is just not a good spot in the schedule for the Eagles. I do not expect the Eagles to fully adjust to McNabb's limitations until after the bye week, when they can devise a new package of plays for the rest of the season that McNabb can handle without undue pain. The Chiefs are not better talent wise than Philadelphia, and on a neutral field with both teams healthy, the Chiefs would have trouble staying close to the Eagles.