The Eagles have a chance to land an emotional kill shot on the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. Dallas targeted all its offseason moves with one goal in mind - to match up with the Eagles. Jerry Jones spent millions, and the 'Boys used valuable cap room on aging veterans at quarterback, nosetackle, guard and corner to plug the leaks left by a decade of poor drafting and cap management. Parcells is now committed to a 3-4 base defense after using most of the premium picks in the draft to get the size needed at OLB and DE to play the 3-4.

Now Dallas is in last place in the NFC East, and faces the prospect of falling even further behind. Like Texas in the "Red River Shootout" game this week vs. Oklahoma, Dallas must also get over the psychological hurdle nobody in the organization will openly admit - that the Eagles have their "number." In the last 12 games vs. Dallas, the Birds are 10-2, and have outscored Dallas 345 - 155. The last 9 cowboy losses to Philly have been by an average of 22.1 points.

Yes, Dallas will be ready emotionally. Parcells will pull out all the stops (pressure packages, flea flickers, gadgets). And yet, in the end, the result will look familiar. There is no chance of a letdown by Philly this week. Forget the 3-3 record by Reid before a bye-this is an NFC East game, and Reid places top priority on preparation all offseason on winning these games. Reid is 8-1 the last 9 in October. The Eagles have covered on 7 of their last 9 games in Dallas. Against teams with a winning record, Dallas is 3-9 the last 12. Dallas also plays poorly in games where the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, being 1-7 straight up in that role. Dallas seems to dislike playing in games projected as mild shootouts.

The Cowboys are not a "running" team this year. They are a team living off big plays on offense, but little else in between to establish consistency. The big plays are going to Terry Glenn and Crayton as WR's, and TE Witten to a lesser degree, who is frustrated he isn't matching last year's production. Julius Jones is about the same size as Brian Westbrook, but nobody mentions that. I have had grave doubts that he could be a workhorse back at his size without wearing down. He bulked up some this offseason, but may have lost a touch of his burst and elusiveness in the process. There is statistical proof that he may be wearing down. His yards per carry by quarter start at 3.9 the first 2, and end with 3.1 the last 2. He has gained 3.4 and 3.5 ypc on first and second down. 158 of his 338 yards have been gained when the cowboys have been trailing by 9-16 points - a situation when defenses are content to defend the pass.

Having watched Dallas closely, I see some areas that are causing the problems in the running game. First, Witten is not a good run blocker. They use him, and Campbell the other TE, as a FB quite often - sometimes to run block, other times as a way he can release as a receiver without being jammed at the line. Against Oakland he was abused and powered backwards as a blocker. The offensive line is struggling. Rivera has been average. Larry Allen still dominates at times when he gets his hands on defenders, but is getting beat clean at times by quicker DT's. Patterson may cause the same trouble as Sapp gave Allen. Adams is struggling with speed rushers, but the rookie Pettiti at RT is the biggest concern in pass protection. The Raiders got the edge easily against him, and Kearse should give him even more problems. If the cowboys devote constant help on Kearse, that takes another receiver out of the pattern.

I expect Jim Johnson will dial up the blitzes early and often. This will be the biggest blitzing game in terms of percentage so far. You have to get at Bledsoe's feet - make him move in the pocket and not stand tall and fire. Blitzing up the middle with safeties and LB's is particularly effective given his lack of mobility. Cover 3, where 1 safety plays up top freeing up the other safety to lurk in the box, may be what Johnson uses often. He may roll the coverage to Glenn's side to prevent the long ball. Crayton is dangerous as the third WR. Sheldon Brown is a good matchup on the slower Keyshawn Johnson, as he is as physical as any CB in the NFC. Witten could be jammed at the line by a LB, and "passed off" to a safety in bracket coverage. I expect Johnson may do what he did against Tony Gonzalez in nickle - use Matt Ware on him in bump, then trail technique with help up top. His quickness and height is a better matchup underneath than any LB on Witten.

I find it hard to believe the Cowbys will use a high percentage of 3-4 looks against Philly. Dallas plays a 2 gap front, rotating 7 DL. Expect to see alot more 4-3, so Glover and Ellis can get in on the pass rush, with Ware lining up as a DE. The 3-4 personnel just doen't match up speed wise with Philly, despite the flexibility it offers to disgiuse blitzes. It is a popular belief that Dallas will blitz like mad come Sunday. There will be pressure packages, but not "sellout" blitzes, like cover 0. Expect more cover 2 with fire zones to try to stop the big plays up top. At various times, all of the Dallas CB's have been picked on this year. There are simply mismatches all over the field on Sunday. Assume they roll the coverage to T.O.'s side, then bracket Westbrook. That uses 4 defenders, and assuming a 4 man pass rush, leaves L.J. Smith, G. Lewis and Reggie Brown in single coverage. Smith would be a lock for being matched with a LB or SS in this scenario, a complete mismatch. The Dallas safeties are terrible pass defenders, and Reid will not hesitate to go up top to test them. If Dallas sends 5 pass rushers, now either Westy or TO becomes singled. A 6 man pressure would put everyone in single coverage, if everone is sent out in the pattern.

Why does Reid love to throw the ball so much? McNabb is completing 67.9% of his passes on first down, and has gotten almost half his passing yards on first down! Reid kills base defenses. While McNabb's completion percentage actually rises as the game goes on - to 66.7% from his 20th to 30th throws in a game - Bledsoes stats drop each quarter; 67.5, 60, 53.3 to 50%. You can wear Bledsoe down with pressure. Yet despite completing more passes early, Dallas has scored zero points in the first quarter all year. Jim Johnson will disguise the blitzes well. For example, watch how Dawkins will creep into the box late in the play clock. It looks like cover 3. Then at the snap, he flashes back to his deep half in cover 2. Despite a lack of consistency, Dallas makes big plays up top. Bledsoe has 14 completions of 20+ yards, only 1 less than McNabb. The key will be 3rd downs. Bledsoe does well on 3rd down, completing 71.1% of his passes for a 120 rating. He only completes 53.3% on first down - the easier down to throw on! Why? I believe the cowboys take more chances on first down throws in terms of sending out more receivers, so Bledose is pressured more. On third down, the conservative Parcells goes to alot of max protection and keeps Bledsoe clean in the pocket to use his arm to Glenn and Crayton. The Eagle D is second in the NFL in 3rd down % at 29.4%.

Matchups that favor Dallas:
1) Special teams
2) Crayton on Hood
3) Witten on any LB
4) Ferguson over the nose of Fraley
5) Ware off the edge against Runyan if no help is given
6) Glover as an inside pass rusher over Hicks

Matchups that favor Philadelphia:
1) Westbrook on any LB or safety
2) T.O. underneath the safeties on zones and up top if passed on by a CB to a safety
3) L.J. Smith against the LB's and safeties
4) Andrews vs. the 3-4 if he is uncovered and can mash people at the second level on inside runs
5) Eagle blitz vs. Bledsoe and the shaky OL of Dallas
6) Trotter vs. Julius Jones between the tackles

Final thoughts: Too much talent on Philly's side. Dallas is solid now, with far fewer holes, but lacks "difference makers" and explosive players. Dallas has to play almost error free ball, particularly with Parcells' conservative ball control approach. While it is a lock that Parcells will try a flea flicker or halfback option or reverse this Sunday (likely between the 40's), mostly he will try to shorten the game. The Eagles' confidence levels have to be soaring after the great comeback last week, and should withstand Dallas' best shot and win going away after a close 3 quarters.